Alpha Trader 1k131r

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. Among the topics covered: There are lots of positives going into 2022, says Santos, expecting the pandemic to fade further, inflation to moderate, and growth to remain strong. For now, at least, inflation should prove to be a boon to corporate profits. The only thing holding the JPMorgan Asset Management team from being uber-bullish is the starting point for stocks - it’s been a big two years for equities, and valuations are perky as we end 2021. JPMorgan’s just-completed Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report looks out to the next 10-15 years, and Santos notes it’s somewhat easier to predict returns over this longer period than over the next 12 months. That report sees U.S. equities returning an average of just over 4%. The better opportunities, says Santos, can be found in more reasonably valued Europe and developing markets. This is Alpha Trader’s final podcast. It’s been a great run over the past two+ years, and we’d like to thank all of our fantastic guests and our sponsor CME Group. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader features host Stephen Alpher speaking with Scott Bauer, CEO of Prosper Trading Academy (co-host Aaron Task is off this week). Among the topics discussed: The recent market stumbles probably have a lot more to do with the Omicron variant, rather than the Fed speeding up its pace of policy tightening, suggests Bauer. For now, Omicron is more about cases, rather than serious illness, but it’s too early to have a handle on how this plays out. Of that Fed tightening, Bauer isn’t too worked up about the central bank’s “plan” to maybe hike three times in 2022. That would still leave short rates near historic lows, and even a move in long rates to the 2.5% area shouldn’t pose much issue for the economy. While leaning bullish on stocks right now, Bauer isn’t trying to hit any home runs thanks to the Omicron wild card. He’s been selling volatility on spikes, noting that seemingly every market downdraft of late has been quickly faded (and he’s using the subsequent rallies to buy back that vol). Looking into 2022, he’s fan of the recently hit big banks, expecting players like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to do well alongside the continuing strong economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial. Among the topics covered: Speaking ahead of the results of this week’s FOMC meeting and after a couple of very speedy inflation prints, Detrick suggests a speedier taper has already been priced in by the markets. Betting on perhaps a more dovish Fed action tomorrow might be something to consider. Looking out to 2022, while markets have priced in three rate hikes, Detrick and team believe there will only be two, with the first move not coming until the second half. Speaking of inflation, Detrick doesn’t believe we’re in a rerun of the 1970s. Yes, the numbers are ugly at the moment, but market-based signals like nominal bond yields, inflation-protection spreads, and the price of gold suggest there may be a speedy improvement in the inflation outlook. Turning to the markets in 2022, Detrick continues to favor stocks over bonds. He notes that when the S&P 500 is up 20% for the year (which we’ll likely be in 2021), it’s been up the following year nine consecutive times. And in seven of those instances, the average was up double-digits. Since 1950, the average return following a 20%+ year is 11.5%. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with J.C. Parets, founder and chief strategist at All Star Charts. Among the topics covered: The technician’s take on last week’s swoon and this week’s major bounce in the stock market. The Cliff’s Notes: The S&P 500 (SP500) held above its September low of 4,500, setting the stage for the rally. Swooning along with stocks, were cryptocurrencies, including a flash crash as we slept on Saturday morning, which took bitcoin (BTC-USD) down by about 20% in minutes. Not necessarily bearish on bitcoin, Parets prefers those cryptos showing relative strength, among them Terra (LUNA-USD), TerraCoin (TRC-USD), Decentraland (MANA-USD), Axie Infinity (AXS-USD), and Sandbox (SAND). He’s got a sizable portion of his trading assets invested in these, and at the moment is earning some whopping yields. While crude oil fell from about $85 per barrel to $65 during November, the Energy Select SPDR (XLE) and the Oil & Gas Exploration SPDR (XOP) barely budged off their highs. That’s the sort of bullish divergence Parets loves to see. He prefers the producers (and thus XOP) to the services names, thanks to the producers’ relative strength. Two favorites are Chevron (CVX) - at a 52-week high despite the price retreat - and Cheniere Energy (LNG), which might have the strongest technicals of any oil & gas name. Among other nuggets: Buying in hopes of mean reversion is like working in a coal mine, while buying strength is like going to a warm beach. Go to the beach. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking EVs with Pieter Taselaar, founding partner and portfolio manager of Lucerne Capital Management. He’s also the CEO of European Sustainable Growth Acquisition Corp. (EUSG), a SPAC which hopes to soon close on its acquisition of ADS-TEC Energy, a German-based company that manufactures EV charging stations that can charge batteries in minutes without putting strain on a city's electrical grids. Among the topics covered: Task and Alpher discuss Fed Chair Jay Powell’s surprising hawkishness on Tuesday morning, which helped send stocks sharply lower. They also dig into Jack Dorsey’s exit from Twitter (TWTR), and what it might mean for the future of that platform Not an investor in the EV auto manufacturers, Taselaar instead looks for opportunities in companies providing the critical charging and battery infrastructure for the industry. Key to his thesis is the need for fast charging, and - in addition to above-mentioned ADS-TEC Energy - Taselaar is a fan of Wolfspeed (WOLF), and ASML (ASML), who make the semiconductors necessary for the battery chargers. He’s also an owner of EVgo (EVGO), a pure EV play which could benefit from the subsidies in the Biden infrastructure bill. Nothing goes in a straight line, of course, and WOLF and EVgo have had rough recent runs. The EV revolution, however, is going nowhere, and Taselaar suggests investors consider adding on dips. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Jim Iurio, managing director at TJM Institutional Securities. Among the topics discussed: Speaking as crude oil prices (CL1:COM) were jumping despite a coordinated governmental effort to boost supplies, Iurio reminds that it’s another entry in the “buy the rumor, sell the fact” mantra. Oil, he notes, was down about $10 per barrel in the weeks leading up to Tuesday morning’s announcement of the SPR release. Iurio is short the S&P 500 (SP500) for a trade, noting a recent rise in interest rates and significant deterioration in the average stock even as the market gauge remains close to or at an all-time high. This isn’t the “big one,” though, cautions Iurio. A continuation of easy monetary policy should assure that any correction will be a modest one. The question going forward is whether the current fast inflation numbers have put us at an inflection point, i.e. is nearly 40 years of progressively easier monetary policy coming to an end? Iurio isn’t so sure we’re there yet, but he’s keeping a close eye on developments. Iurio remains bullish on not just the price, but the disruptive nature of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and Ethereum (ETH-USD). Of news that some high-profile professional athletes are taking their salaries in bitcoin, he does get a bit worried, saying it reminds him of a supermodel who in 2007 demanded to be paid in euros shortly before that currency’s long, steep decline. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Dr. Lacy Hunt, executive vice president of Hoisington Capital Management. Among the topics covered: Hunt and his partner Van Hoisington have correctly remained steadfastly bullish on long-dated U.S. Treasurys ([[TLT]], [[TBT]]) through multiple inflation scares over the past few decades. They remain bullish today despite some scary recent I prints, continuing to point out the clear evidence that over-indebtedness in the U.S. will act as a deflationary force. This doesn’t mean there won’t be quarters of speedy economic growth and occasional gains in inflation, but once the high of whatever government stimulus du jour wears off, economic sluggishness and a pullback in inflation will reassert. Hunt expects the just-ed $1T fiscal stimulus bill to be yet another example - a short bout of higher growth, but ultimately even worse economic performance down the road thanks to the boosted indebtedness. Turning to monetary policy, Hunt notes that growth in the money supply has begun to slow even prior to the Fed’s taper, suggesting a coming slowdown in both the economy and inflation. How could this be given that the banks have nearly $1.5 trillion more in reserves than they did a year ago? Banks, Hunt says, are not able to put those reserves to profitable use, so they remain on at the Fed earning a handful of basis points. As for yesterday’s hot retail sales report (for October), Hunt believes a lot of folks - reading stories about the possibility of bare shelves come Christmas-time - pulled their buying forward. More interesting to him is last week’s plunge in consumer sentiment, with the sub-index of durable goods purchase expectations falling to one of its lowest reads ever. It suggests to him a serious lack of confidence in the economy. He also takes note of the poor approval numbers for the current istration - prints one would never see were there not major economic concerns. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. Among the topics discussed: While the Fed has begun to taper and may push through a couple of rate hikes next year, Schutte expects the central bank to be very patient about tightening policy. He’s in the “transitory” camp on inflation, noting plenty of slack in the labor market as evidenced by a labor force participation rate that remains quite low. Given the above combined with growing corporate earnings and a 10-year yield in the 1.50% area, Schutte continues to see stocks as the place to invest. The “market” may be expensive in some areas, says Schutte, but it depends where you look. The S&P Pure Growth Index trades at 35x next year’s earnings, but the S&P Pure Value Index at just 11x. While there’s been good reasons for Growth to outperform to this point, Schutte sees a shift towards areas that are cheaper. Noting the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia both reversed themselves on tightening threats in the last couple of weeks, Schutte isn’t seeing any appetite among global central banks to declare war on inflation. Therein lies the risk for the market in future years - that central banks at some point are going to have to really slam on the breaks. That, however, is a question for 2023, or perhaps beyond. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group, and the author of There's No Free Lunch: 250 Economic Truths. Among the topics discussed: While the energy sector has been red-hot this year, it’s hard to say things are frothy, says Bahnsen. He notes yield spreads remain high, price-to-earnings and price-to-cash flow multiples remain low, and stock prices for many exploration and production companies are down 30%-50% from the last time oil was in the $80 per barrel area. He notes Chevron (CVX) just had its best cash flow quarter ever, and Exxon’s (XOM) capital discipline during the tough times is paying off in a big way. As he said during his May appearance on Alpha Trader, Bahnsen believes there’s no more under-appreciated sector in energy than the midstream space, i.e. the players involved in transporting, storing, and pipelines. Yields are strong, valuations are reasonable, and financial metrics continue to improve. He continues to like Kinder Morgan (KMI) and Enterprise Product Partners (EPD), but his major holding is in the USCF Midstream Energy Income Fund ETF (UMI). A fan of the goal of cleaner energy, Bahnsen is pleased that “grown-ups” like Goldman’s David Solomon and JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon have pledged to continue facilitating capital towards fossil fuel producers, as it’s just not possible at this time for renewables to fuel the globe’s energy needs. As for the current inflation scare, Bahnsen expects it is cyclical, not secular. The overwhelming level of government debt has been, and will continue to be a major deflationary force. This will again be apparent once the economy works through this expansion’s supply chain and labor shortage issues. Moving away from the energy sector, Bahnsen is an owner of Merck (MRK) and JPMorgan (JPM), noting healthy and growing dividends for both. Merck has the soon-to-come Covid treatment pill, and the balance sheet for effective M&A ahead of patent cliffs (see the recent Acceleron purchase). JPMorgan, says Bahnsen, is the best-run big bank in the U.S. He reminds of the big dividends the House of Dimon continues to get from its pennies-on-the-dollar financial crisis purchases of Bear Stearns and WAMU. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher chatting with Ben Laidler, global market strategist for eToro. Among the topics discussed: Q3 earnings season has been a big reminder that growth is not dead, says Laidler. He sees upside to his 2022 year-end S&P 500 forecast of 5,050 as markets continue to dramatically underestimate earnings power, and still-low bond yields perky equity valuations. Markets have already priced in three Fed rate hikes next year. Laidler suspects that’s a quicker pace of tightening than what will actually happen, but he reminds that markets often stage a relief rally once the Fed actually commences with rate hikes. Laidler is also bullish on commodities, and thinks oil could head into the triple digits. But what about inflation in that scenario? He’s not too concerned, noting how “de-commoditized” Western economies have become. Turning to Bitcoin, Laidler is bullish there as well. The next move higher, he expects, will come from far greater institutional adoption. It’s only a trickle at this point, but wider acceptance is inevitable. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode of Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Brue Liu, CEO at Esoterica Capital, and portfolio manager of the Esoterica Thematic ETF Trust (WUGI). Among the topics discussed: 5G technology is much more than just an upgrade from 4G, says Liu. If one thinks of 4G as enabling the mobile internet, 5G will allow the digitization of every aspect of our lives - from streaming to smart homes to smart factories to remote healthcare to self-driving cars. Another difference - if 4G was mostly a U.S. phenomenon, 5G is global. The evolution to 5G technology will first be felt in semiconductors as all devices will require upgrades. Among Esoterica’s top ten holdings are Nvidia (NVDA), Xilinx (XLNX), Marvell (MRVL), Qualcomm (QCOM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). Speaking of the recent crackdown by Beijing on China’s large tech companies, Liu says these regulatory developments have been a long time coming. The country’s leadership has long felt the tech giants have been extraordinary beneficiaries of hyper-growth, and now it’s time to share some of the wealth, says Liu. As recently seen with Meituan (MPNGF), the companies will reach a settlement with the government, agree to changes, pay a fine, and move along. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A special bonus edition of the Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Mike Alfred, founding CEO at BrightScope Digital Assets Data, and a board member at Eaglebrook. Among the topics discussed: Yes it’s nice that the current price action in bitcoin (BTC-USD) is bullish, but Alfred urges focus on the long-term. The size of the network will continue to grow, more institutions are buying in (but haven’t yet publicly announced), even more institutions are going to have to buy in, and there’s no end in sight to federal deficits and central bank money printing. Bitcoin is likely going to seven figures within the next decade, so it doesn’t matter too much whether one buys at $60K or $30K, or anywhere in between. Move over FAANG and make room for CHARM. China’s banning of bitcoin mining has led to an even greater opportunity for North America-based miners. This so-called CHARM group: Core Scientific (XPDI), Hut 8 (HUT), Argo Blockchain (ARBK), Riot Blockchain (RIOT), Marathon Digital (MARA) now has a larger opening to scale up and build market share. Alfred notes the miners are the only players who can create their own bitcoin, they’re hodling onto to all the bitcoin they mine, and their cost of capital is rapidly trending towards zero. Alfred also owns ethereum (ETH-USD), but says it’s a very modest amount vs. his allocation to bitcoin. He considers ethereum as more of a venture capital play on some possibly interesting utility uses. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a truly decentralized, organically-growing monetary network that is continually becoming more valuable. If Bitcoin is successful with potentially billions holding and using it, it doesn’t require a whole lot of imagination to see what one of 21M coins might be worth at some point. Could Bitcoin fail? There’s a non-zero chance, says Alfred, but as the network grows, the chance of this happening continues to slide. Turning to brokerages, Coinbase’s (COIN) stock has had a modestly rough run of it since its IPO, but the action reminds Alfred of Facebook’s initial rough post-IPO trade. As Bitcoin grows, and crypto grows, a well-run Coinbase figures to scale right alongside, even if it faces competition on fees from any number of peers. Look at Schwab ... It’s doing better than ever, even with $0 commissions. After dithering for years, what is the first Bitcoin ETF that the SEC finally approves? It’s a futures-based ETF offered by ProShares which may make for a nice short-term trading vehicle, but is about the last thing any Sats stacker should be interested in. More interesting to Alfred is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which has begun the work to convert to an ETF. It’s trading at a 15%-18% discount that will disappear once the ETF conversion takes place - a pretty decent return should that happen in the next 6-12 months. The train has left the station, says Alfred, speaking of questions about whether the U.S. could somehow ban or halt Bitcoin. There are too many states that have encouraged and are receiving Bitcoin-based investment for any national ban. There is a minor risk, concedes Alfred, that a cabal of powerful governments - think U.S., EU, China, India - get together to severely restrict Bitcoin. Alfred puts the chances at about 1%, but even a move like this would only curtail the size of the network, not kill the crypto. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On the two-year anniversary of the Alpha Trader podcast, hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher welcome back to the show, Bob Iaccino, co-founder of The Stock Think Tank. Among the topics discussed: While the renewable energy movement is a worthy one, the world isn’t yet ready to run on sun and wind. The lack of investment in fossil fuels has the globe on the verge of, if not already in an energy crisis. Some believe oil would need to be in the triple digits to put a sizable dent in the economy and corporate profits, but Iaccino believes this is already happening at $80. Iaccino reminds that turning the spigots back on for U.S. shale production isn’t as easy as flipping a switch. Even if there were the regulatory appetite to do so (a big if), getting production up and running again requires capital, equipment, labor … all of which are tough to come by at the moment. As far as the short term, Iaccino and team believe the price of oil (CL1:COM) is extended. They’ve covered their longs and are waiting for a pullback to reload. Turning to stocks, Iaccino is bullish in the medium-term, but expects there will be one more washout in the averages prior to a resumption of the uptrend. He’s a bottom-up stock picker and never owns more than a handful of names. Among his holdings right now: Cognizant Technologies (CTSH), Hormel Foods (HRL), Viacom ([[VIAC]], [[VIACA]]), Ford (F), Salesforce (CRM), and Sprott Physical Gold ETF (PHYS). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking first with Mark Minervini, author of several best-selling books, Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard and Think and Trade Like a Champion, among them, and then with Dan David, the founder of short-focused activist-research outfit, Wolfpack Research. Minervini is leading the pack this year in the U.S. Investing Championship in the $1+ money manager category with a whopping 262% gain. Though not a short seller by nature, at least some of Minervini’s gains have come from his decision on September 13 to short the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). What led Minervini to short the market and to remain short was his observation of the weakening technicals beneath the averages - among them, 80% of S&P 500 stocks down 10% or more, and just 38% of Nasdaq names above their 200-day moving averages. Minervini made news last week saying that the technicals of the market remind him of the situation prior to the 1987 crash. Those who extrapolate that statement to him predicting a crash, however, are missing the point. What he’s trying to say is that conditions continue to favor a correction in stocks, so he’s staying short. When the technicals improve, he’ll cover and go long. Dan David is perhaps best known as a featured protagonist in 2018’s, The China Hustle, a film that documented his work in uncovering fraud in China-based U.S. stock listings. At the root of The China Hustle is that it was legal in China to defraud foreign investors. That remains so today, says David, so bottom line: The financial statements of Chinese companies - from giants Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU) all the way down to the smallest of small caps - cannot be trusted. And though David doesn’t trade the Chinese megacaps, he assures that the regulatory crackdown on these players is for real. “Thou shall not be bigger than the state,” he reminds. It’s all about control, says David, who isn’t surprised by China’s moves against Bitcoin. A government that doesn’t allow its currency to float or guarantee basic freedoms can hardly be expected to sit aside while citizens keep their money off the books. And on Taiwan, David is certain that China will take over/invade at some point, and that the U.S. will be powerless to stop it. Whatever one thinks of Chairman Xi, says David, he’s a man who does what he says he’ll do … And he’s said as much. Turning to active trades, David continues to be profitably short what he considers to be frauds like SGOCO Group (SGOC) and Moxian (MOXC), and a SPAC deal - Skillz (SKLZ) - where he believes the sponsors were too aggressive with their projected numbers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Jeff Kilburg, chief investment officer at Sanctuary Wealth. Among the topics covered: What’s behind the current market jitters? Is it the debt ceiling debate, concern about tighter central bank policy, soaring energy prices, supply chain worries, China Evergrande? Whatever the reason and whatever the resolutions to the above concerns, all roads appear to lead to easier than otherwise Fed policy, and Kilburg remains bullish. Two regional Fed presidents resigned earlier this week thanks to trading scandals, and as the podcast was being recorded, Chairman Jay Powell’s odds of serving another term took a dip when Senator Elizabeth Warren declared him a “dangerous man.”. A lot of this stuff is for show, reminds Kilburg, but it’s yet another reason Jay Powell will more or less continue to stand there with a sign saying “buy risk assets.” The velocity of the move higher in long-term rates has shaken some, notes Kilburg, but the absolute level of the 10-year yield of about 1.5% remains historically low. As long as the 10-year rate remains range-bound below about 2%, it should be good for tech stocks. Kilburg and team have been buying the dip in areas like cybersecurity and semiconductors. Though a fan of the reflation trade, and an owner of names like 3M (MMM), Boeing (BA), and Masco (MAS), Kilburg did take profits on most energy holdings in mid-September. Links of interest: Senator Warren: Fed Chair Jay Powell a 'dangerous man' Debt ceiling and inflation in focus at Yellen's and Powell's Senate testimony Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with David Trainer, CEO of independent research firm New Constructs, and the author of Value Investing 2.0, a newsletter available on Seeking Alpha's Marketplace service. Among the topics covered: The Evergrande story out of China is naturally worth paying attention to, but it's particularly important during these times of stretched market valuations. The question at hand is whether the Chinese government will step in to ease liquidity concerns. This is likely to happen, but there's no guarantee. Trainer explains his proprietary concept of Earnings Distortion, a systematic alpha-generating calculation of a company's true (vs. reported) results. Among Trainer's favorite picks is Disney (DIS), which is weathering the challenge from Netflix (NFLX) very well. Trainer notes Disney generates massive cash flow from multiple channels, while Netflix is burning through billions. Another favorite is Walmart (WMT) - like Disney, generating billions in cash flow, and also like Disney, weathering the challenge from a sexier competitor (in this case Amazon). Links of interest: David Trainer's Value Investing 2.0 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher discussing the latest macro topics. Technical difficulties kept our guest - RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas - from the recording, but we were able to speak with him offline and relay some of his thoughts. Among the topics: “Team transitory” got a win with Tuesday morning’s softer-than-expected inflation report, says Brusuelas, but - with the I continuing to run at north of 5% - it’s still to early to declare victory. Stocks initially rose on the slow inflation number, but finished the day with losses. Investors may have gotten complacent after what seems like months with no downturn lasting for more than a few hours, but September - so far - has been a return to reality, with the S&P down about 3% in the first couple of weeks of the month. Meanwhile in China, that country’s leadership reminded everyone that they can send a sector down sharply at any point. This week it was the casino sector that drew some comments from Beijing, sending some of those players down double digit percentages. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with George Ball, chairman of Sanders, Morris, Harris. Among the topics discussed: Stocks are expensive and the bull market is long in the tooth, but the Fed (or at least Chairman Jay Powell) is showing little interest in tightening policy. While fast growth and perky inflation would seemingly argue for the Fed to move, don’t discount that Powell would like to keep his job - tapering and/or higher rates wouldn’t be the best career move. What might upset this equation is the Fed having gotten it wrong on “transitory” inflation. Last week’s “soft” employment report was notable for a 0.6% rise in average hourly earnings - double what was expected. While one could argue that the taper is priced into stock prices, Ball says higher and stickier than expected wage-led inflation certainly isn’t. Nevertheless remaining bullish, Ball prefers “new tech” names that have far greater upside than the FAANG+ players. Among them are MercadoLibre (MELI) and Chegg (CHGG) - both stocks have had astounding gains over the past few years, but the best way to invest, says Ball, is to have the memory span of a goldfish. The market caps of each remain relatively small compared to the market opportunities they have. Bullish on cryptocurrencies, Ball recommends splitting an investment up three ways - one-third in bitcoin (BTC-USD), one-third in ether (ETH-USD), and one-third in Coinbase (COIN). If worried about the competitive threat that Coinbase may face as other exchanges raise funds in IPOs, Ball wouldn’t have issue buying a basket of these players instead of just Coinbase. Ball is also a fan of a recently gone-public small-cap biotech, Sera Prognostics (SERA). The company has a test which can determine if a woman is likely to give birth to a baby prematurely. By being able to identify and treat this condition early, the savings - both from a human and cost standpoint - would be enormous. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features host Stephen Alpher talking with Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers (co-host Aaron Task is on vacation this week). Among the topics discussed: “​​Goldilocks is a 68-year-old man in a suit,” or how Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole keynote address managed to please both equity and fixed-income investors. Ahead of the talk, a number of Fed speakers made clear they were in favor of beginning the taper sooner, rather than later. Powell pushed back against that hawkishness, while still suggesting that tapering isn’t too far off. With more gains in August, the S&P 500 (SP500) is now on a seven-month winning streak. Past history suggests markets will be nicely higher in six months, but Sosnick reminds that so much depends on the timing of the streak - this time around it’s occurring at what may be near the beginning of a Fed tightening cycle. Shorting the VIX at this point in the cycle may be like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, with upside (of the bet) of a couple of points, but the downside far greater - particularly as we head into what’s typically the seasonally volatile period of September/October. The potential of blockchain technology (decentralized ledger) may be as great as that of the Internet, but that doesn’t mean the price direction of bitcoin (BTC-USD) has to be a one-way street higher. Similar to Cisco - which had a huge run early in the era, but has underperformed for more than two decades despite its importance for Internet usage - bitcoin’s price could languish even as blockchain technology delivers society-changing products. Links of interest: ​​Goldilocks is a 68-year-old man in a suit Blockchain is to the Internet as Bitcoin is to ? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices